Survivorship Bias – the origins

Survivorship Bias

The image is a reference to the seminal work done by statistician Abraham Wald in World War II: the military planned to add armor to the parts of bombers that had the most bullet holes; Wald noted that only bombers that survived their mission could be examined, which means the parts without bullet holes were actually the most vulnerable and needed armor. This is called “survivorship bias”

Stratechery Daily Update 2017-01-03, January 3, 2017 at 11:31PM

I’m surprised how widespread the Survivorship bias is, even 70 years after its discovery.

Products, customers, and decisions

It means understanding the product, understanding why our customers are using us and even more important why they are not using us or are not happy.

Every engineer is a product person, January 4, 2017 at 05:12PM

Stuff like this is why I admire TransferWise, as a company, so much. Continue reading Products, customers, and decisions

Right wing playbook for media

In defining “fake news” so broadly and seeking to dilute its meaning, they are capitalizing on the declining credibility of all purveyors of information.

Over the years, we’ve effectively brainwashed the core of our audience to distrust anything that they disagree with.

Wielding Claims of ‘Fake News,’ Conservatives Take Aim at Mainstream Media, December 28, 2016 at 04:23PM

Continue reading Right wing playbook for media

Liberalism, 2016

As a set of beliefs that emerged at the start of the 19th century to oppose both the despotism of absolute monarchy and the terror of revolution, liberalism warns that uninterrupted power corrupts. Privilege becomes self-perpetuating. Consensus stifles creativity and initiative. In an ever-shifting world, dispute and argument are not just inevitable; they are welcome because they lead to renewal.

How to make sense of 2016, December 27, 2016 at 11:32PM