“This is probably what it felt like to be a British foreign service officer after World War II, when you realize, no, the sun actually does set on your empire,” said the mid-level officer.
‘They Really Want to Blow This Place Up’: Scenes From Trump’s State Department, March 11, 2017 at 06:59 PM
The image is a reference to the seminal work done by statistician Abraham Wald in World War II: the military planned to add armor to the parts of bombers that had the most bullet holes; Wald noted that only bombers that survived their mission could be examined, which means the parts without bullet holes were actually the most vulnerable and needed armor. This is called “survivorship bias”
Stratechery Daily Update 2017-01-03, January 3, 2017 at 11:31PM
I’m surprised how widespread the Survivorship bias is, even 70 years after its discovery.
Use my marker 